Ursula von der Leyen begins from the supporters of the EU, however doesn’t lower bridges

Small steps, a couple of steady factors, a single goal: to regain the presidency of the Fee by the summer season.

Ursula von der Leyen has gained and satisfied within the first a part of her race for the second time period. However the recreation is just not over. Quite the opposite. In Brussels, the time has come for negotiations, small teams, anticipated, threatened, dreamed of intrigues.

The time has come to type that majority that may shield not solely the previous German minister, however all the package deal of excessive positions. The sovereignist avalanche, on the pro-European entrance, has prompted an unconditional reflex: to unite to maintain the steadiness intact. Von der Leyen and Manfred Weber have introduced that negotiations will probably be initiated by the Socialists and Liberals, taking a right away opening.

However with one situation: Giorgia Meloni shouldn’t be a part of the coalition.

Nonetheless, for higher or worse, everybody must contemplate Meloni and Le Pen within the EU. The dialogue between the EPP and the chief of the Nationwide Motion was by no means conceivable. Nonetheless, the one with Meloni was a concrete risk till a couple of days in the past. Now von der Leyen should tread extra fastidiously.

Clear opening to Meloni would imply shedding S&D and Renew votes, or at the least a few of them.

“If the EPP negotiates with conservatives and reformists, we is not going to be there,” warned the European Socialist Get together.

“No settlement with Melon, with PiS, with Reconquete. It is the far proper and we need to maintain the road,” added Renew chief Valerie Hayer.

Each EPP companions have the perfect joker to play with the Folks: they’re indispensable to reform the Ursula majority. The EPP, accustomed for many years to advanced and Levantine negotiations, is absolutely conscious of this. On the similar time there’s each intention of placing some extent on the desk: they’re the winners of the European elections within the face of a Franco-German axis that got here out of the electoral spherical nearly in items. The EPP will clearly say this within the negotiations between the parliamentary teams and in these between the European leaders, demanding that the results of the vote be revered.

It is going to start on June 17 with an off-the-cuff dinner on the twenty seventh.

Negotiators will probably be Donald Tusk and Kyriakos Mitsotakis for the EPP, Pedro Sanchez and Olaf Scholz for the Socialists. Actually, the talks have already began. The primary casual conferences of the teams are anticipated in Brussels. On the sidelines of the G7, European leaders will nearly definitely speak about prime jobs. Mounted level, they mentioned.

Von der Leyen made it clear that within the negotiations he’ll begin from the PSE and “the massive European households which have cooperated effectively”, however he’ll depart the “doorways open” for others. EPP leaders – together with heads of state and authorities – spoke about it within the first assembly through video name.

The primary clue factors to the Greens, though nobody can rule something out in the intervening time. A bit of the EPP, for instance, may simply do with out opening as much as environmentalists. However the Greens are pro-Ukraine and are a assure for the safety of that Inexperienced Deal that the precise and the sovereignists have as their first goal.

Ursula’s majority, with out Inexperienced, is 400 seats, 40 greater than the 360 ​​required. With 53 members of the Greens, the danger from snipers would even be marginal. A danger that nonetheless exists. Simply have a look at the warning of Antonio Tajani, in accordance with whom “it’s nonetheless early” to speak about Ursula’s invitation.

The fitting definitely is not watching. On Wednesday, Le Pen and Matteo Salvini, in Brussels, will determine whether or not to reopen the door to the AfD and take inventory of the prospects of the ID group, which emerged stronger, as did the ECR. The speculation of a single group is just not excluded.

Viktor Orban has supported him as soon as once more. However at that time Mellon’s positioning could be on the alternative entrance to that of von der Leyen, and he could be unlikely to seek out the political alchemy to method. To all these we should add the final puzzle, that of just about 100 non-members. Usually these are ex novo events, which might additional strengthen the sovereignists.

Nonetheless, some delegations will go to the EPP, others will probably be cut up between the Liberals, S&D and the Left. So much will rely upon the packages, lots on the provide. The European Quarter could be remodeled right into a single and enormous market.

Prime Minister: ‘Stronger in Rome and within the EU – Now the puzzle fee’ (by Silvia Gasparetto)

To affect the alternatives that will probably be made for the brand new European buildings. Even when the numbers show that it’s going to not be attainable to materialize that “center-right majority” in accordance with the Italian mannequin promoted throughout the electoral marketing campaign.

Giorgia Meloni benefited from the development of FDI and the precise within the European elections however celebrated the “5 minutes”. As a result of the sport has simply begun. And now we’ve to discover a strategy to make the “power” of the Italian authorities weigh on Brussels as effectively, since it’s the just one among the many large EU international locations that got here out “robust” from the voting consequence.

The outgoing president, for the second, stays the title that the EPP ought to suggest to the European Council for a second time period on the head of the fee.

“When the proposal is formalized, we are going to consider it”, the Prime Minister takes a cautious stance, remembering that, earlier than reaching the European Parliament, the chosen title will need to have the approval of the Council. Italy, she assures, “is not going to be a spectator”.

Quite the opposite. One of many hypotheses, the Italian guess, is to let the negotiations quiet down pending the French vote in late June-early July. Within the meantime, maybe, we are able to see if another title can come as much as attain a consensus.

Furthermore, Antonio Tajani himself, who represents the EPP in Italy, has emphasised that von der Leyen is at the moment “a political indication, not a authorized obligation” and that it’s “nonetheless too early” to speak a couple of second time period. In fact, it could be troublesome for Meloni to remain out of the deal for the brand new presidency of the Fee.

However it could even be troublesome to offer full assist to von der Leyen, within the Council and within the EP, with out being too uncovered to the precise. Among the many ECR conservatives, Fratelli d’Italia is the one main social gathering in authorities, whereas allies Vox and PiS (which in 2019 supported von der Leyen) might depart the opposition.

Like Marine Le Pen, who now goals to win the legislative elections in France and can most certainly make an electoral marketing campaign fully towards Macron, who’s within the EU Council with Mellon, in addition to within the G7.

For the positioning within the EU and the inner problems with the conservatives, from the growth of the ECR (with the Romanians of the AUR or the Hungarians of Fidesz) to the hypotheses to type a joint group with the ID (the household of Le Pen and Matteo Salvini) has begun to be mirrored inside Fratelli d’Italia and the dialogue may also start in Brussels from Wednesday, when a primary casual assembly of the group is deliberate.

Within the meantime, Meloni will start to probe her counterparts, to grasp what areas she has to keep away from being disregarded of the European video games. Maybe relying on the time for election to come back later.

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